Locita

Perang Dingin Teknologi: Inikah Kekalahan Tiongkok?

Sumber Gambar: ILustrasi todayonline.com

-Kalaupun perusahaan Tiongkok dapat mencapai swasembada teknologi, bukan berarti mereka akan mampu bersaing secara global

Semua orang tau bahwa AS dan Tiongkok mulai terlibat dalam perang dingin teknologi – sebuah peperangan penguasa teknologi adikuasa masa depan dan  turut melibatkan, ekonomi global.  Kebijakan pemerintah AS terhadap Tiongkok terus berevolusi untuk memenangi perang ini, dengan langkah spesifik yang bertujuan menjaga pengetahuan Amerika dari tangan Tiongkok.

Pada akhirnya, “perang” ini mungkin tidak melibatkan banyak pertempuran besar.  Narasi ini didasarkan pada asumsi yang masih dipertanyakan – bahwa Tiongkok pasti akan menjadi sebuah ladang inovasi, dengan “jagoan nasional” yang siap menantang Intel Corp, Apple Inc. dan Google Alphabet Inc. untuk penguasa komando teknologi dunia.  Sebelum Tiongkok dapat tumbuh menjadi ancaman sehebat itu, perusahaan-perusahaannya harus mengatasi sejumlah rintangan, yang jelas tidak semudah itu untuk diatasi.

Ada satu alasan mengapa terdapat sedikit perusahaan seperti Qualcomm dan Microsoft dalam ekonomi dunia: Apa yang telah dilakukan kedua perusahaan tersebut hampir mustahil.  Sangat sedikit perusahaan, terutama dari pasar-pasar berkembang baru, yang terbukti mampu menembus ke liga besar teknologi global.  Tanyakan saja pada perusahaan Korea Selatan Samsung Electronics Co. tentang perjuangannya memanjat tangga inovasi yang panjang dan berdarah-darah.

Ketakutan di Washington adalah ‘permainan curang’ Tiongkok dengan memberikan subsidi besar-besaran kepada industri teknologinya, mulai dari kendaraan listrik hingga semikonduktor.  Sejarah ekonomi modern membuktikan bahwa memompa dana pemerintah ke sektor-sektor yang disukai seringkali gagal menghasilkan perusahaan yang inovatif.  Dalam kasus Tiongkok bisa jadi peluang keberhasilannya lebih rendah, karena sebagian besar bantuan tersebut disalurkan ke perusahaan-perusahaan besar yang terkenal birokratis milik AS.

Alih-alih, adanya pendanaan cenderung menghasilkan kelebihan kapasitas produksi yang dapat menggilas pemain kompetitif lainnya.  Rekor Tiongkok sejauh ini begitu campur aduk.  AS misalnya, telah menghamburkan puluhan miliar subsidi dalam industri kendaraan listrik, yang berakhir dalam tempat pembuangan barang rongsok, kendaraan di bawah standar, dan konsumen yang kecewa.

Skenario “perang teknologi” juga mengasumsikan bahwa perusahaan teknologi AS akan duduk diam saja dan membiarkan Tiongkok menghancurkan mereka.  Selagi Tiongkok mengejar ketertinggalan, tentu saja, perusahaan-perusahaan Amerika dan para pemain ternama lainnya tetap terus berjalan.  Meskipun perusahaan industri semikonduktor internasional (SMIC) didirikan hampir dua dekade yang lalu, perusahaan semikonduktor Tiongkok ini masih lima sampai enam tahun di belakang para pesaingnya, menurut Linley Gwennap, presiden dari Linley Group, sebuah badan riset yang berspesialisasi dalam industri chip.  Sebagaimana yang ia jelaskan, ketika SMIC mencoba untuk menutup jarak tersebut, kemungkinan besar kompetitornya telah melesat lebih jauh di depan.

Bahkan jika perusahaan Tiongkok berhasil menghasilkan teknologi yang mampu bersaing, mereka tidak secara otomatis menjadi pesaing global.  Menciptakan inovasi adalah satu masalah tersendiri;  dan mencari pelanggan adalah masalah lain lagi.  Perusahaan-perusahaan itu harus meyakinkan konsumen untuk meninggalkan perusahaan dan merek yang mereka percayai selama ini, bahkan ada konsumen yang setia pada suatu perusahaan selama beberapa dekade, dan menggantinya dengan alternatif buatan Tiongkok.

Bukan berarti tidak mungkin.  Raksasa telekomunikasi Tiongkok Huawei Technologies Co. sudah datang membuka jalan.  Tetapi hambatannya tinggi.  Salah satu alasan mengapa Intel Corp dan Advanced Micro Devices Inc. bertahan sebagai pemain dominan dalam bidang mikroprosesor komputer dan server dikarenakan satu industri ini telah berkembang menyesuaikan dengan produk perusahaan mereka, sehingga sulit bagi pendatang baru untuk menerobos masuk. Seperti yang dikatakan Gwennap, “Pada akhirnya, Tiongkok dapat membuat infrastruktur dan ekosistem mereka sendiri. Tetapi itu tidak menjadikan mereka unggul di pasar dunia.”

Alih-alih, misi Tiongkok untuk menciptakan kemandirian teknologi dapat dengan mudah mengisolasi ekonomi di bidangnya sendiri, dimana perusahaan dan konsumennya menggunakan suatu teknologi yang belum banyak digunakan di tempat lain.  Hal itu sudah terjadi. Beberapa raksasa teknologi Tiongkok telah berhasil di belakang proteksi Great Firewall – terutama Baidu Inc. – tetapi gagal menemukan konsumen global.

Kebijakan Presiden AS Donald Trump dapat semakin mengisolasi upaya kompetisi Tiongkok dengan menolak akses perusahaan Tiongkok ke teknologi AS.  Huawei baru-baru ini mengatakan bahwa ia menciptakan sistem operasinya sendiri yang siap digunakan pada akhir tahun, untuk menggantikan Android Google dan Microsoft Windows.  Tetapi Huawei juga menegaskan bahwa mereka akan mengambil langkah tersebut jika Washington mempertahankan larangannya yang mencegah perusahaan-perusahaan AS untuk memasok perusahaan Tiongkok.  Para eksekutif Huawei cukup bijak untuk mengetahui bahwa beralih ke sistem operasi baru buatan sendiri akan memutuskan smartphone mereka dari arus utama perangkat lunak dan membatasi akses pelanggan mereka ke layanan-layanan populer.

Tentu saja, Tiongkok pasti akan menghasilkan beberapa perusahaan teknologi yang dapat bersaing secara global.  Negara ini memiliki terlalu banyak perusahaan pintar dan teknisi berbakat untuk melewatkan kemungkinan ini.  Namun bukan berarti menciptakan ancaman teknologi terhadap AS.  Tampaknya masih tidak mungkin perusahaan Tiongkok untuk menantang, apalagi melampaui, teknologi AS di berbagai sektor dan dalam skala global, mau berapapun uang birokrasi yang mereka habiskan.

Jalan terbaik bagi Tiongkok mungkin untuk mengikuti jejak Jepang dan Korea – menghasilkan beberapa perusahaan terkemuka yang mampu mengukir keberadaan global dan menjadi bagian integral dari lanskap teknologi dunia.  Namun itu tidak menggambarkan sebuah perang dingin.  Kedengarannya lebih mirip kompetisi kapitalis.

======

Diterjemahkah dari “Tiongkok’s Likely to Lose a Tech Cold War oleh Michael Schuman. 12 Juni 2019

 

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