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‘Krisis Keperawanan” Mengancam Rating Kredit Jepang

“Krisis seks” Jepang menyita banyak perhatian beberapa bulan belakangan. Kaum antropolog sangat terkesima dengan hasil penelitian yang menunjukkan pemuda-pemudi Jepang sudah jarang melakukan seks.

Namun, dua data terkini menyiratkan bahwa fenomena ini juga akan menyita perhatian para pedagang obligasi.

Ada dua alasan bagi mereka untuk melirik masalah ini, yaitu: statistik terbaru pemerintah menunjukkan penurunan tajam hingga titik terendah di tahun 2018. Pada tahun 2012, Perdana Menteri Shinzo Abe mendatangi para pejabat dan memohon untuk merubah arah perkembangan demografi Tokyo. Ia menguji coba beberapa program perangsang seperti insentif pajak, akses perawatan anak yang lebih mudah, dan biaya pendidikan yang diturunkan. Namun, populasi 127 juta penduduk Tokyo hanya mampu menghasilkan 920.000 bayi tahun lalu.

Alasan kedua adalah beban utang yang terus naik dan tidak adanya pemikiran baru tentang cara menghentikan tren ini, sementara perang dagang dunia terus bergulir. Di Tokyo, rasio utang terhadap produk domestik bruto telah lama mencapai angka 250%. Dapat dibayangkan masa depan yang menghantui Jepang: jumlah pekerja yang terus turun, beban utang yang terus naik, serta ancaman dari bea cukai yang dikenakan oleh Donald Trump.

Bulan lalu, Moody menurunkan tingkat penilaiannya terhadap sektor perbankan Jepang, dari status stabil ke status negatif. Pertimbangan Moody adalah “nilai dari bank-bank Jepang akan merosot dalam 12 hingga 18 bulan ke depan.

Dari krisis Asia pada 1997 dan “Lehman Shock” pada tahun 2008, kita dapat mengetahui bahwa bencana finansial selalu bersumber dari sektor perbankan sebelum masuk ke arus utama. Bukan berarti Jepang mengarah menuju kehancuran krisis utang dalam waktu dekat, seperti apa yang disebut oleh para ekonom sebagai “Minksy Moment”.

Namun ini memberi kesan bahwa kelalaian ringan Tokyo terhadap neraca keuangan nasional dapat berakhir dengan buruk untuk investor terikat. Lagipula, setelah keuntungan -1.12% dalam 10 tahun terakhir, dapat dibilang bahwa para investor justru membayar untuk membeli kerugian dari Tokyo.

Saat ini, baik Moody, Standar & Poor, maupun Fitch Ratings tidak mengancam akan menurunkan status perbankan secara terang-terangan. Namun, pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang yang melambat dan utang yang tidak terkendali bertabrakan dengan “Krisis Keperawanan,” sebagaimana para ekonom dari Universitas Tokyo menyebutnya sebagai krisis seks.

Di awal tahun ini, Universitas Tokyo meneliti bersama Karolinska Institute dari Swedia dan menemukan bahwa pada tahun 2015, sekitar seperempat warga Jepang dibawah usia 40 tidak memiliki pengalaman seksual – meningkat 20% dari dua dekade yang lalu. Terdapat banyak teori mengapa hal ini terjadi, salah satunya adalah jam kerja yang sangat panjang. Namun begitu, hampir tak ada pembahasan mengenai kasus ini yang dikaitkan dengan beban utang Tokyo yang tak terkendali.

Ada beberapa langkah yang dapat diambil oleh pemerintah: mengingkatkan pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB); mengimpor lebih banyak buruh asing; atau memotong pengeluaran pemerintahan hingga menurunkan kebutuhan peminjaman. Pada penanganan kasus deflasi, Jepang telah mencoba cara pertama selama 25 tahun dengan sedikit keberhasilan.

Jepang sudah mencoba meningkatkan imigrasi untuk mengakali tenaga kerja yang sedikit, namun masih dengan takut-takut sehingga jumlah imigran masuk belum cukup menutupi lubang dalam perekonomian. Partai Demokrat Liberalis Abe tak pernah melakukan opsi memotong pengeluaran dengan baik. Partai ini terus mengambil utang untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Jepang justru menaikkan pajak penjualan. Pada tahun 2014, Jepang menaikkan retribusi konsumsi dari 5% ke 8%, dengan rencana mengalihkan hasil penjualan untuk membayar utang. Rencana ini ternyata berbalik jadi senjata makan tuan. Tinjauan paling sederhana sekalipun tentang cara Presiden AS Herbert Hoover mengetatkan kebijakan fiskal dalam menghadapi Great Depression seharusnya bisa membantu Tokyo memprediksi reses ekonomi Jepang yang mengikuti. Abe malah menambah utang untuk menambal akibat reses.

Pada akhir tahun ini, di bulan Oktober, pemerintahan yang dipimpin Abe berharap untuk menaikkan pajak penjualan ke angka 10%. Tokyo harus berhati-hati dalam hal ini, karena perang dagang Presiden Trump telah mengacaukan eksport, kepercayaan terhadap bisnis, dan kemungkinan besar membuat korporasi-korporasi Jepang terpaksa menaikkan gaji.

Para ekonom dari Dai-Ichi Life Research memprediksi kontraksi sebesar 0,5% dalam kuarter sekarang. Melihat perlambatan ekonomi di Cina, pasar terbesar Jepang, dapatkah periode Juli hingga September menjadi lebih baik? Akhirnya, justru muncul opsi-opsi di Tokyo berupa “biaya tambahan untuk meningkatkan permintaan”, serta “keringanan tambahan untuk Bank Jepang”. Tidak ada opsi yang memaksa Tokyo untuk mulai mengendalikan utangnya.

Masalah sebenarnya adalah sikap Jepang yang terus mengobati gejala saja, daripada memperbaiki akar masalahnya langsung. Bukannya menerapkan perbaikan struktural untuk mendukung produktivitas dan daya saing jangka panjang, Tokyo justru bergantung pada stimulan jangka pendek.

Stimulus tanpa perbaikan sudah cukup menjelaskan kenapa utang Jepang terus bertumbuh, meningkatkan kemungkinan turunnya status kredit Jepang. Saat ini, Moody menempatkan Jepang dalam status A1, yaitu empat level dibawah AAA dan sama seperti status Cina dan Estonia.

Hal ini juga menjelaskan mengapa Bank Jepang telah menjadi pemilik terbesar obligasi pemerintah Jepang. Bank Jepang memegang setidaknya 50% dari sekuritas ternama dan diatas 80% dari dana yang diperjualbelikan. Pada akhir tahun 2018, Bank Jepang menjadi yang pertama dalam Kelompok Tujuh Bank Kapital untuk memiliki aset lebih banyak dari total aset beredar di perekonomian, yaitu lima triliun dolar AS.

Semua debat tentang “Teori Moneter Modern” mengabaikan kenyataan bahwa Jepang telah bereksperimen dengan teori tersebut selama 20 tahun. TMM, sebagaimana para ekonom menyebut teori ini, menyatakan bahwa suatu pemerintahan yang meminjam dalam bentuk mata uangnya sendiri dapat menghabiskan dan meninggalkan utang tersebut tanpa harus takut akan risiko yang biasa terjadi dalam utang.

Teori ini dapat diperdebatkan kebenarannya, bila tidak memperhitungkan kerugian demografi yang menanti di depan mata. Selain itu, bukti bahwa generasi akhir dari Generasi X Jepang, Generasi Y, dan generasi-generasi berikutnya semakin tidak tertarik pada seks dan hubungan intim yang menghasilkan angka kelahiran stabil.

Tak dapat dipungkiri bahwa fenomena krisis bayi adalah kejadian global, menurut situs berita Axios di bawah judul “Masa Depan yang Menua, Tanpa Anak”. Para aktivis pecinta lingkungan merasa hal tersebut memang dibutuhkan oleh bumi kita yang telanjur penuh. Di akhir abad ini, populasi global diramalkan dapat meledak ke angka 11 milyar orang.

Dalam jangka pendek, banyak negara dengan perekonomian yang maju harus menyeimbangkan kenaikan utang dengan menyusutnya jumlah pegawai. Tanpa kenaikan signifikan dalam imigrasi, menurut Axios, 48 negara atau wilayah akan memiliki jumlah populasi lebih sedikit pada tahun 2050. Jepang diramalkan mengalami penurunan populasi sebesar 15%. PBB menyatakan, pada tahun 2050, tujuh negara Asia akan memiliki rasio pekerja banding pensiunan kurang dari 2:1.

Hal itu saja sudah berarti “kenaikan beban fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lambat bila dibandingkan jika populasi tidak menua”, kata Richard Jackson dari Global Aging Institute. Jepang tentunya sudah membawa suatu beban utang mengerikan dan beban ini justru diturunkan kepada generasi muda yang tidak ingin bereproduksi.

Dapatkah status kredit A1 Jepang bertahan melewati krisis seks? Bagaimana dengan hasil obligasi pada angka -1,12% yang justru merugikan?  Perlu dicatat bahwa sejak 2016, Kementrian Keuangan telah menggodok ide untuk mengeluarkan obligasi 50 tahun, yang akan memecah rekor obligasi dengan jangka waktu jatuh tempo terpanjang setelah masa perang. Perusahaan Kereta Api Jepang Timur telah berencana mengeluarkan obligasi ini.

Tak seorang pun dapan memprediksi keadaan populasi Jepang pada 2069.

Secara antropologis, ada alasan untuk khawatir dengan tren ini – yang terjadi sejak zaman Menteri Keuangan Taro Aso hingga generasi milenial – karena tren ini telah memuluskan jalan untuk perhitungan utang yang sangat tidak seksi.

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Opini ini ditulis oleh William Pesek, pertama kali dipublikasikan di Forbes.com

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