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Perang Dagang AS-Cina: Vietnam Mungkin Mendapatkan Keuntungan, tapi Indonesia Juga Bisa Beraksi

Sumber Gambar: Nikei Asian Review

Ketidakpastian menimbulkan gejolak dramatis dalam ekonomi global. Investor dan pakar ekonomi tidak dapat memprediksi dengan jelas apa artinya perang dagang AS-Cina untuk yang lainnya. Namun, justru karena tidak pasti, fenomena ini akan menentukan siapa yang menang dan kalah dalam pertarungan supremasi ekonomi, dan Indonesia seharusnya mengambil keuntungan.

Perang dagang dimulai ketika sebuah negara mengadopsi langkah perlindungan, mengenakan pajak impor untuk melindungi industri domestik dan membuka lapangan pekerjaan. Langkah ini biasanya membuat produsen lokal menurunkan harga, membuat mereka lebih kompetitif dengan pasar impor. Tetapi, langkah yang sama juga memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara tersebut, dan secara global, akan menyebabkan tidak efektifnya alokasi sumberdaya.

Mengurangi defisit perdagangan AS untuk mencadangkan produksi domestik adalah hal yang memotivasi Presiden AS, Donald Trump, untuk mengadopsi langkah perlindungan – menaikkan pajak impor besi dan aluminum produk otomotif dari Eropa, serta pajak barang-barang dari Cina. Trump sudah menepis sekitar 25% dari sejumlah barang impor asal Cina, bernilai sekitar 300 dolar AS. Cina, sebaliknya, juga telah menerapkan pajak baru untuk impor barang asal AS senilai 60 milyar dolar AS.

Konsekuensi langsung dari kebijakan ini diantaranya adalah jatuhnya impor barang asal Cina di AS sebesar 8,5% pada Mei 2019, dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu. Di Cina, ekspor – terutama untuk AS – diprediksi juga mengalami penurunan yang sama. Beberapa perusahaan dengan lini produksi di Cina, seperti Apple, diramalkan akan meninggalkan Cina untuk mencari pasar yang lebih menguntungkan, misalnya Vietnam. Pertumbuhan global sekarang juga diramalkan melemah sekitar 0,5% ke 2,6% di tahun 2020, yang merupakan angka terlemah sejak krisis ekonomi global tahun 2008.

Sekilas, hanya Vietnam dan Meksiko yang terlihat akan untung karena perang dagang. Meksiko dekat dengan AS dan memiliki hubungan dagang bilateral dengan Washington, sementara Vietnam telah menjadi pengganti potensial untuk produk-produk pabrikan yang tadinya diimpor dari Cina (Vietnam juga telah menerima fasilitas sistem preferensi umum yang membantu ekspor barang ke AS).

Untuk Indonesia, masa depan ditentukan oleh kebijakan ekonomi yang inovatif dan berorientasi ke luar.

Pertama, investor tidak melirik negara Asia berkembang seperti Indonesia untuk mengatasi penurunan barang dari Cina. Di tiga bulan pertama pada 2019, ada penurunan tajam dalam investasi langsung pihak asing ke Indonesia, dari 10,5 milyar dolar AS pada akhir Desember 2018 ke 5,4 milyar dolar AS pada akhir Maret tahun ini. Kedua, perlambatan ekonomi dari kekuatan terbesar di Asia yang juga salah satu pasangan dagang terbesar Indonesia, hanya membuat investasi asing terus menurun dan mempengaruhi ekspor barang mentah seperti minyak sawit, kayu, karet, dan batu bara. Terakhir, hubungan dagang Indonesia dengan AS – hanya komoditas barang, bukan produksi barang – tidak terpengaruh oleh pajak yang dikenakan AS.

PEMIKIRAN ULANG YANG DIPERLUKAN

Untuk mengambil keuntungan, Indonesia harus memikirkan kembali apa yang dia tawarkan.

Ada beberapa strategi yang dapat dipakai pemerintah di Jakarta untuk menghasilkan sesuatu dari perang dagang ini.

Indonesia sebaiknya mengejar perjanjian perdagangan regional dengan negara lain. Efek negatif perlindungan perdagangan AS dan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina dapat diimbangi dengan perjanjian yang menjamin volume ekspor-impor antar negara berkembang di Asia.

Lihat saja perjanjian Uni Eropa dengan Meksiko dan Jepang yang telah menurunkan bahkan meniadakan pajak untuk semua barang.

Jakarta juga perlu menjaga masuknya arus masuk modal asing dan menjaga kursnya stabil. Bank Indonesia memprediksi neraca pembayaran Indonesia akan terus menguat selama didukung oleh arus masuk modal asing dan pengurangan defisit yang sudah ada – yaitu sekitar 2,5 – 3% dari Produk Domestik Bruto. Pada Februari lalu, Indonesia mencatat surplus neraca perdagangan di angka 0,33 milyar dolar AS. Pada bulan yang sama, bank sentral juga mencatat pemasukan arus modal asing sebesar 6,3 milyar dolar AS.

Akhir kata, pemerintah Indonesia harus mendukung terbentuknya industri produksi ekspor.

Perusahaan-perusahaan ini memerlukan pondasi yang kuat untuk produksi, sehingga dapat mengisi kekosongan yang ditinggalkan barang-barang Cina.

Jadi, meski masih banyak yang dapat dipikirkan mengenai perang dagang AS-Cina, ada satu hal yang pasti untuk Indonesia, dan apakah Indonesia mengambil keuntungan tersebut atau tidak memang tergantung pada orang-orangnya.

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Opini ini ditulis oleh Muh. Zulfikar Rahmat, dosen Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) dan Peneliti INDEF yang diterbitkan di South China Morning Post

 

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